Ukraine, enlargement and budget: EU summit promises to be “complicated”

Brussels – The summit at the end of the year, which will see the heads of state and government of EU countries confront each other on issues that are as complex as they are sensitive, promises to be “complicated”.

It is no coincidence that diplomatic sources make no secret of a starting position far from ideal. Enlargement and the common budget review alone are agenda items that see the States not proceeding in any particular order and certainly with very different visions. Starting with the EU accession process. On Ukraine joining the Union, there is a consensus in principle that it would be good to start negotiations, as recommended by the Commission in early November.

“If we don’t start negotiations now, we do enormous political and moral damage,” is the reasoning in Brussels, and not wrongly so. A lot has been promised to Kyiv, probably too much, but that is another story. However, not moving forward would eventually undermine the EU’s credibility. Viktor Orban and his Hungary are putting on the brakes. At the moment, only Budapest poses a firm ‘no’ to the start of negotiations. But there are also those around the table who would like to tie Ukrainian membership to that of Bosnia and Herzegovina. For example Austria, and also Slovenia. The message from non-Italian delegations is that Italy would be ready to put its foot down for Sarajevo. Denials and clarifications come in a close second.

Italy will not block Ukraine’s path of rapprochement with the EU. On the contrary, the Prime Minister intends to reiterate her approval to start negotiations with Moldova and grant candidate status to Georgia. At the same time, Italy will work so that other applicants get appropriate recognition. “The Western Balkans are important, especially for Italy, no less than Ukraine,” EU sources confide. With this in mind, Italy “firmly” supports Bosnia and Herzegovina’s European path and will make sure something is conceded. The idea on the table is perhaps starting negotiations on trust: even if Sarajevo does not exactly have everything in order, there is confidence that, in time, it will make the necessary reforms. Italy’s position is a question of vision and opportunity in addition to interest: the Republika Srpska, the Serbian entity of Bosnia, is seen as an anti-European drive leading towards Moscow. Legitimizing the rest of the country could counterbalance the pro-Putin drives in one part of the country. Net of this, the exchange of accusations over enlargement offers a sense of the difficulty of an uphill summit.

There are also disagreements regarding the proposed budget review, which the Commission estimates at about 66 billion euros. Here, too, Italy has no intention of walking away from the table, but opposes to those – the Netherlands, Denmark, Finland, Austria, and even Germany – who would like to put fresh resources only for the financial support instrument for Ukraine. Because, for Italy, there are other priorities: first and foremost, immigration. The frugal countries calling to divert resources from existing programs (research, investment) for needs identified by the Commission and member states are not easy customers. “The negotiation starts now,” those who closely follow this dossier brutally say. Also weighing on the common budget review is the ECB’s firm and restrictive policy against high inflation.

There is the issue of covering the cost of increasing interest rates on NextGenerationEU loans, the post-pandemic recovery program for which the EU has begun issuing common debt securities. The program has coverage for 2024 is there, but it must be found for 2025 and 2026. In the end, an additional 5 billion per year is at stake, and there is the need to prove to be credible to markets and investors. Some do not rule out that the confrontation on this point could also begin with the reasoning on rates.

There is also the crisis in the Middle East. Israel’s right to exist and defend itself against terrorist attacks is not in dispute. Just as there is no doubt around the table that Hamas remains a terrorist organization, and this is how the EU considers it. The 27 Member States are divided between the need for a cease-fire immediately and those who want to help but without preventing the eradication of Hamas. The search for a compromise and the right language, seems possible but not very within reach. Here, too, the debate is likely to be protracted. For the Italian government, and it is expected that Meloni will make this clear, the best response to Hamas’ actions, deemed as “unacceptable,” must be a new political drive toward a two-state solution. This envisions, alongside security for the Jewish state, ensuring a solid political horizon for the Palestinian people.

The EU member states stand at the starting point of a truly complicated negotiation. It cannot be ruled out that there will be widespread and continuous interruptions, breaks, bilateral meetings, or restricted extended formats. It is not a coincidence that the President of the Council, Charles Michel, invited leaders to “present themselves equipped with a spirit of compromise, a sense of collective responsibility, with the Union’s interests and values at the forefront of your minds.” An invitation that highlights the many diversities of this Europe.