{"id":336668,"date":"2024-02-15T11:00:21","date_gmt":"2024-02-15T10:00:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.eunews.it\/2024\/02\/15\/mar-rosso-ue-taglia-crescita-eurozona\/"},"modified":"2024-02-20T16:24:50","modified_gmt":"2024-02-20T15:24:50","slug":"middle-east-red-sea-crises-and-chinese-slowdown-eu-cuts-eurozone-growth-estimates","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/staging.eunews.it\/en\/2024\/02\/15\/middle-east-red-sea-crises-and-chinese-slowdown-eu-cuts-eurozone-growth-estimates\/","title":{"rendered":"Middle East, Red Sea crises and Chinese slowdown: EU cuts eurozone growth estimates"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Brussels &#8211; Tensions in the Middle East with\u00a0ramifications in the Red Sea; the slowdown in China that affects demand and, therefore, exports of eurozone countries: the outlook is full of uncertainties and, in this context, the European Commission can only\u00a0<strong>revise downward its growth estimates for 2024 and 2025<\/strong>. The winter economic forecasts show an<strong>\u00a0almost half-a-point cut in the eurozone&#8217;s and the EU&#8217;s 2024 GDP<\/strong>. Eurozone growth of 0.8 percent this year, down from 1.2 percent expected in November and almost unchanged in 2025: 1.5 percent instead of 1.6 percent budgeted in the <a href=\"https:\/\/economy-finance.ec.europa.eu\/economic-forecast-and-surveys\/economic-forecasts\/autumn-2023-economic-forecast-modest-recovery-ahead-after-challenging-year_en\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Autumn Economic Forecast<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Brussels cut its growth estimates for all member countries, starting with Germany. <\/strong>\u00a0After the contraction in 2023 (-0.3 percent), the eurozone&#8217;s economic engine will continue to struggle this year and <strong>growth will be almost zero: just 0.3 percent<\/strong>, half a point lower than expected a few months ago (0.8 percent). Barring further complications, the German economy should rebound in 2025 (1.2 percent), for the sake of the eurozone, but in the meantime Germany&#8217;s slowdown is likely to produce negative effects\u00a0for everyone.<\/p>\n<p>In summary: &#8220;<strong>prospects for the first quarter of 2024 remain subdued<\/strong><span class=\"HwtZe\" lang=\"en\"><span class=\"jCAhz ChMk0b\"><span class=\"ryNqvb\">,&#8221;\u00a0 the Union executive notes.<\/span><\/span>\u00a0&#8220;In the second half of this year, the pace of<br \/>\ngrowth is set to stabilize at cruising speed, broadly in line with potential, until the end of 2025<span class=\"jCAhz ChMk0b\"><span class=\"ryNqvb\">.&#8221; Even the Commissioner for the Economy, <strong>Paolo Gentiloni<\/strong>, acknowledge that &#8220;<strong>t<span style=\"font-size: 18px;\">he rebound expected in 2024 is set to be more modest than projected three months ago<\/span><\/strong>.&#8221;<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Crisis in the Red Sea<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>.<\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-bottom: 0px;\">Brussels chooses the line of caution in a completely changed scenario with a blurred outlook. There is a mix of factors, all different and all potentially harmful, weighing on the EU and the euro area. &#8220;<span class=\"HwtZe\" lang=\"en\"><span class=\"jCAhz ChMk0b\"><span class=\"ryNqvb\"><span style=\"font-size: 18px;\">Geopolitical tensions, an ever more unstable climate and a number of crucial elections around the world this year are all factors increasing the uncertainty around this outlook<\/span>,&#8221; Gentiloni summarizes. But among the main and most immediate risk factors is the crisis in the Red Sea.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span class=\"HwtZe\" lang=\"en\"><span class=\"jCAhz ChMk0b\"><span class=\"ryNqvb\">The winter economic forecast devotes a small paragraph specifically to the situation in the area.\u00a0Shipping through the Red Sea has been re-routed, resulting in longer shipping times and &#8220;skyrocketing<br \/>\nshipping costs.&#8221;<\/span><\/span> <span class=\"jCAhz ChMk0b\"><span class=\"ryNqvb\">Shipping times between Asia and Europe &#8220;increased by 10-15 days and <strong>freight costs<br \/>\nfor containers on several China to Europe routes increased by around 400%<\/strong>.\u00a0The disruption is affecting shipping<br \/>\ncosts worldwide.&#8221;\u00a0\u00a0T<\/span><\/span><\/span>he <a href=\"https:\/\/staging.eunews.it\/en\/2024\/01\/15\/red-sea-gentiloni-warns-eu-consequences-could-materialize-in-coming-weeks\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">risks that Gentiloni saw\u00a0less than a month ago<\/a>\u00a0are becoming true.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\n<ul>\n<li><strong>China&#8217;s slowdown weighs on exports<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>China&#8217;s slowdown also weighs on the economic weakness of the EU and\u00a0eurozone countries. &#8220;<strong>The expected slowing of<br \/>\ngrowth in the US and China is weighing on demand<\/strong><span class=\"HwtZe\" lang=\"en\"><span class=\"jCAhz ChMk0b\"><span class=\"ryNqvb\">,&#8221; but there is a particular focus on the Asian market. <\/span><\/span><\/span>The EU executive recognizes that the <span class=\"HwtZe\" lang=\"en\"><span class=\"jCAhz ChMk0b\"><span class=\"ryNqvb\">Chinese economy &#8220;is at a critical stage.&#8221;<\/span><\/span> It means that &#8220;<span class=\"jCAhz ChMk0b\"><span class=\"ryNqvb\">A faster-than-expected retrenchment in economic activity, in the absence of a comprehensive reorientation of policies, could have negative growth spillovers to the EU economy.&#8221; The positive note, in this scenario, is an easing of price pressure, especially on energy commodities, which means lower inflation<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Drop in Inflation\u00a0<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>.<\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-bottom: 0px;\">The good news in these less-than-stellar economic forecasts comes from the inflation curve. The Commission cuts its forecasts for eurozone inflation in 2024 to<strong>\u00a02.7 percent, from 3.2 percent<\/strong>\u00a0in the November economic forecast. In 2025, it remains unchanged at 2.2 percent. Merit for a path has already begun in recent months. Lower energy commodity prices and weaker economic dynamics have put inflation on a lower downward path than expected, the EU Commission document reads.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>2024 GDP cut by 0.4 percentage points to 0.8 percent in Winter economic forecast. Germany comes to a stop. Gentiloni: &#8220;Increased uncertainty&#8221;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":494,"featured_media":270318,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"episode_type":"","audio_file":"","podmotor_file_id":"","podmotor_episode_id":"","cover_image":"","cover_image_id":"","duration":"","filesize":"","filesize_raw":"","date_recorded":"","explicit":"","block":"","jnews-multi-image_gallery":[],"jnews_single_post":{"source_name":"","source_url":"","via_name":"","via_url":"","override_template":"0","override":[{"template":"1","single_blog_custom":"","parallax":"1","fullscreen":"1","layout":"right-sidebar","sidebar":"default-sidebar","second_sidebar":"default-sidebar","sticky_sidebar":"1","share_position":"top","share_float_style":"share-monocrhome","show_share_counter":"0","show_view_counter":"0","show_featured":"1","show_post_meta":"1","show_post_author":"1","show_post_author_image":"1","show_post_date":"1","post_date_format":"default","post_date_format_custom":"Y\/m\/d","show_post_category":"1","show_post_reading_time":"0","post_reading_time_wpm":"300","show_zoom_button":"0","zoom_button_out_step":"2","zoom_button_in_step":"3","show_post_tag":"1","show_prev_next_post":"1","show_popup_post":"1","number_popup_post":"1","show_author_box":"0","show_post_related":"1","show_inline_post_related":"0"}],"override_image_size":"0","image_override":[{"single_post_thumbnail_size":"crop-500","single_post_gallery_size":"crop-500"}],"trending_post":"0","trending_post_position":"meta","trending_post_label":"Trending","sponsored_post":"0","sponsored_post_label":"Sponsored by","sponsored_post_name":"","sponsored_post_url":"","sponsored_post_logo_enable":"0","sponsored_post_logo":"","sponsored_post_desc":"","disable_ad":"0"},"jnews_primary_category":{"id":"","hide":""},"jnews_override_counter":{"override_view_counter":"0","view_counter_number":"0","override_share_counter":"0","share_counter_number":"0","override_like_counter":"0","like_counter_number":"0","override_dislike_counter":"0","dislike_counter_number":"0"},"footnotes":""},"categories":[25705],"tags":[25916,26889,26896,26888,25828,25881,26107,26285,25793,25883],"class_list":["post-336668","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-business","tag-cina-en","tag-forecast-economics-winter-en","tag-dwinter-economic-forecast","tag-forecast-economics-en","tag-eurozone-en","tag-crescita-en","tag-inflation-en","tag-mar-rosso-en","tag-middle-east-en","tag-paolo-gentiloni-en"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/staging.eunews.it\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/336668","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/staging.eunews.it\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/staging.eunews.it\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/staging.eunews.it\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/494"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/staging.eunews.it\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=336668"}],"version-history":[{"count":6,"href":"https:\/\/staging.eunews.it\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/336668\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":337836,"href":"https:\/\/staging.eunews.it\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/336668\/revisions\/337836"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/staging.eunews.it\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/270318"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/staging.eunews.it\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=336668"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/staging.eunews.it\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=336668"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/staging.eunews.it\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=336668"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}